Thursday, January 15, 2009

Reliable Rumours

So yesterday the sensex rallied by 299 points. The most obvious reason behind this sharp surge as touted by Indian media was a rumour that ambani brothers were heading for an out-of-court settlement for their natural gas dispute. Quite an effective rumour that was. Considering the strong influence that rumours emanating from ambani brothers have on indian stock markets one would wonder how these rumours can be turned into panacea for all the pains that investors are enduring these tough days. If only rumours related to reconciliation between ambani brothers make the sensex leap by almost a couple of hundred points and in effect soar the wealth of millions, imagine what could be achieved by actual acts of fraternity performed by ambanis!

It hasn't been long since the horrendous scam in satyam was revealed and in a matter of few days a rumour (which was later denied by reliance industries) has eclipsed that actual fraud which is to the tune of 7000 crores and has propelled the stock market strikingly up. Part of this frenzy can be ascribed to the over-ambitious investors who took the rumour seriously. However, taking a sanguine view at the turn of events, shall we expect more rumours from ambanis to catapult the market up further? I mean, why not hope for a day when only rumours drive the stock market? In which case, by letting only positive rumours make their way to the media ambanis can ensure a significant surge in the not only their own wealth but also of the millions other who hold stocks in reliance companies. Could charity (which indeed begins at home in this case) get any better than this? But then why even keep this formula of wealth creation restricted to ambanis? The more the merrier. The best way going forward would be to encourage rumour-mongering by the chiefs of every blue chip company in india and consequently entirely avoiding the impact of health of balance sheets, cash flows and profit & loss accounts, on the price of any blue chip stock.

This practice will have favourable side effects too. For example, frauds similar to the one committed in satyam won't be able to erode the hard-earned wealth of thousands other innocent investors. Why? Because, in satyam's case erosion happened due to shaken investor confidence on account of cooked books. Now when the chiefs of blue chips will be rumour-mongering religiously the balance sheets and other relevant data will already have been rendered unimportant, useless and eclipsed by the power of rumours. Few would care about the stats and no dumping of stocks would happen in case of frauds thus preserving the value of investments.

Coming back to my original point of turning this practice of rumour-mongering into a cure-all for investors; why not go a step further and organise events which will have even deeper impact on the stock market? Say, for example, why not organise an event of gilli danda or khokho between ambani brothers and also invite mittals, tatas and other bigwigs to it? Imagine how this act of fraternity by top honchos, when properly packaged and delivered by media, would positively impact investor's sentiment in india while keeping all the petty balance sheet stats out of picture. Gosh, wealth creation was never so easy. Who said times are bad?!

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